Terms of Reference

Consultancy for Resilience Analysis of Transitional Development Aid Project in Ukraine Submission date for quotations: 10th August COB

Project title: “Strengthening resilience of vulnerable persons and war affected communities in Ukrainian Oblasts boarding the front lines and russian[1] border through social cohesion, community development, rehabilitation of infrastructure and service delivery”

1. Introduction

AWO International (AWO) has been working in Ukraine since March 2022. AWO’s Ukrainian partner organisations implement humanitarian assistance and recovery projects. AWO’s main donors in Ukraine are the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), German Federal Foreign Office (GFFO) and Aktion Deutschland Hilft (ADH). AWO has its country office in Kyiv and a project office in Mykolaiv.

DVV International stands for the universal right on lifelong learning and has been working in Ukraine since 2010. The organisation’s project work is aimed at strengthening the national adult education system including improving the framework conditions in the country (lobbying, advocacy, policy advice), building the capacity of respective structures/providers of non-formal adult education and promoting professionalisation in the sector. DVV International currently cooperates with nine Ukrainian CSOs, seven of them are local adult education centres (Lviv, Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnitsa, Zaporozhye). DVV’s Country Office is situated in Kyiv and employs 12 staff members. The main donors of the organisation’s project work in Ukraine are BMZ (Sozialstrukturförderung (SSF) and GFFO. 

AWO and DVV International invite consultants to conduct a resilience analysis. The resilience analysis is a donor requirement to further fine-tune the project design in order maximize the project’s impact.

2. Background of planned project

The planned project will be focus on three Ukrainian Oblasts (Odesa, Chernihiv and Poltava) affected by the war. Odesa and Chernihiv Oblast will be the main focus of the Resilience Analysis. At the initial stage of the consultancy, AWO, DVV International and the consultants will discuss and decide how to include Poltava Oblast in the analysis. The project is planned to run from the fourth quarter of 2026 until 2031. The project aims to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable individuals, households and communities, as well as local stakeholders, so that they can cope independently with economic, psychological and social hardships, and local conflicts resulting from the russian war of aggression, and develop new life perspectives. The project will deliver the following outcomes: reconstruction and rehabilitation of basic infrastructure and social services (e.g. establishment and management/running of community centres, adult learning, mental health and psychosocial support services, economic empowerment), and peaceful and inclusive coexistence and cohesion in the communities of the project region. The project will be implemented in parallel with a humanitarian assistance project; therefore, the Nexus Chapeau approach will be applied.

3. Purpose, objective and use of the resilience analysis

The objective of resilience analyses is to obtain a comprehensive understanding of (i) existing risks and crises in the given context, (ii) the affected and responsible actors and structures as well as their strengths, potentials and competences (resilience capacities) for coping with risks and crises, and (iii) the needs and opportunities to further strengthen these capacities for cross-sectoral crisis management.

Building on this, transitional development assistance projects in fragile contexts can be designed to be risk- and crisis-informed in order to strengthen the resilience capacities of vulnerable people and structures.

The design of a transitional development assistance project begins with the resilience analysis. Therefore, the following steps are intended:

A. Preparation of a concept note in which the scoping questions of the resilience analysis are answered provisionally on the basis of existing documents, data and knowledge.

B. Consultants conduct the resilience analysis. The results of the resilience analysis will be included in the up-dated concept note;

The main users of the results of the resilience analysis are AWO, DVV International and their Ukrainian partners to design and later implement of a realistic, efficient, impactful, feminist, inclusive and risk aware project. Meanwhile for BMZ and interested members of the public, the analysis will provide transparent accounting for change.

4. Methodology

The analysis shall apply a mixed method design approach using quantitative, qualitative and participatory methods as is indicated, but not limited to, below:

• Desk review and analysis of relevant documentation including concept note, regional/national policy/working papers, district development plans, and other relevant reports;
• Field mission for data collection using agreed upon tools with the different proposed project stakeholders;
• Data triangulation and analysis for report elaboration.

Note: During the implementation of the resilience analysis, there will be a possibility of changes to these ToR from AWO and DVV International that will need to be adopted by the consultant.

5. Scope of Work

The resilience analysis will be conducted in Ukraine. Field visits to Odesa, Chernihiv and Poltava are envisaged. However, this might be subject to change. Hence, the consultants are requested to adjust their field visits accordingly.

The study is scheduled for August 25, 2025 – end of October, 2025.

A. Concept note

In the concept note AWO and DVV International considered the following four scoping questions of the resilience analysis provisionally based on existing documents, data and knowledge. Concept note will be provided to the selected consultants.

1) Against which risks, crises and vulnerabilities should resilience be strengthened?

2) Whose resilience should be strengthened? (target group, structures, institutions, organisations, networks, at which level: individual, household, community, Oblast)

3) In which sectors/ areas should resilience be strengthened?

4) With what objective should resilience be strengthened? (with regard to resilience capacities: stabilisation capacity, adaptation capacity, transformation capacity)

B. Resilience analysis

In the resilience analysis, risks and crises as well as resilience capacities are examined comprehensively. After conducting the preliminary analysis, data collection and a consultation process, the main products of the analysis are: the responses to the scoping questions, a completed resilience capacity matrix, considerations to add a humanitarian response activities to this project (nexus approach) and input for the Theory of Change and its indicators.

In the preliminary analysis, secondary sources (available analyses, documents, data such as peace and conflict, fragility, gender and inclusion analyses) are assessed according to the guiding questions below.

Based on the preliminary analysis, a first draft of the resilience capacity matrix is developed. The matrix maps the identified resilience capacities and potentials. During the following data collection, information is collected, triangulated and discussed - e.g. in the context of focus groups discussions and interviews with key informants - in order to deepen and complement the analysis. Whenever necessary, relevant and feasible, this qualitative, participatory approach should be complemented by quantitative surveys. This explicitly focuses on the perspectives of people affected by risks and crises. The following guiding questions provide central orientation for the preparation of the analysis:

1) Risk and Crisis

• What are the risks and crises (economic, ecological, political, security-related and/or societal) affecting people’s lives as well as governmental and non-governmental institutions, networks and organisations at the Hromada and Oblast level?
• Which (acute and latent) conflict issues, dividing lines and phenomena of violence exist and impact the development of the affected people and community(ies)?
• How do the various risks and crises interact with each other (interdependences)? What dynamics exist between the various risks and crises?
• Which developments and risks are foreseeable for new/future crises or a change in the situation (worsen, remain the same or improve)? What is the probability that these risks will occur?

2) Relevant and affected actors

• How do individuals, households, communities, governmental and non-governmental institutions, networks and organisations at Hromada and Oblast level respond to crises, shocks and associated ongoing/ recurrent stresses? Which individuals, groups and structures are particularly vulnerable?
• Which actors or decision-makers in the Hromadas and Oblasts have responded to and/or influenced the crises? How are they coordinating? Are there general agreed-upon guiding frameworks and strategies for action?
• What (power and hierarchical) relationships do exist between the actors involved and those affected by crises?
• What resources, capacities and scope for action do these actors have?

3) Capacities and potentials for strengthening resilience

• Which actors have responded to the crises, shocks, and ongoing/ recurring stresses with which strategies or behaviours? With what results (including negative adaptation strategies)?
• How are affected people, governmental and non-governmental institutions, networks and organisations preparing for shocks and ongoing/ recurring stresses?
• What resilience capacities are already in place? How do the existing capacities relate to the three resilience capacities of stability, adaptation and transformation at the different levels of implementation (individual, household, community)?
• Which capacities are needed and should be strengthened? (Pick up and strengthen potentials) -> Resilience-Capacity-Matrix

 
4) Do-No-Harm

• With regard to the crisis and conflict context, what are the possible unintended negative effects of the project? What are potential measures to mitigate the risks (Do No Harm)?
• How is engagement perceived locally (in terms of geographical focus, target groups, sectors, etc.)?
• Do they address all groups of people in the sense of the 2030 Agenda (Leave No One Behind)?

5) Humanitarian-Development-Peace (HDP) Nexus

• Which humanitarian, development and peacebuilding actors are active in the context? What are their competencies and comparative advantages?
• Are there established HDP-Nexus coordination mechanisms? How and through whom can coordination and exchange be facilitated or agreed? What collective goals have already been formulated?
• Where does the project have concrete potential for cooperation and/or synergies with humanitarian, development and/or peacebuilding actors?
• What are the needs regarding the promotion of social cohesion (peace pillar) in the local context and what are the possibilities to strengthen social cohesion? What is the potential for synergies with peacebuilding actors?
•  IMPORTANT: How can the planned project address existing short-term, humanitarian needs of target groups in the project locations? How best to connect a humanitarian assistance project to the planned project (nexus approach)?

The following questions serve to ensure the quality of the analysis: The data collection is followed by a consultation process with partners, target group representatives and other key stakeholders to discuss, validate and, if necessary, complement the results of the preliminary analysis and data collection. That consultation process can take the form of a workshop. Here, the resilience capacity matrix and the scoping questions are supplemented, revised if necessary and finalised. From the completed resilience analysis, input for a Theory of Change and indicators for the envisioned project are derived.

Formulation of recommendations for the project design:

• IMPORTANT: How can the project design further strengthened to contribute to gender equality and inclusion? Please, name concrete action which achieves a measurable impact.
• Based on the main findings of the resilience analysis, what concrete suggestions can be made for the project design in the specific context and location?
• In the framework of the concept note: What is missing/shall be added to the project to achieve the planned objectives and impact?
• Which planned activities are rather unsuitable and for which reasons?
• Do the assumptions on impact and sustainability on which the project concept is based seem plausible and sustainable; how should they be adapted, if necessary?
• How can the outcome and output indicators be further developed / finetuned (qualitative and quantitative) to measure the changes for the target group? Which findings and data from the analysis are recommended as a baseline to be incorporated into the LogFrame?
• How can the nexus-approach (addressing both short-term, humanitarian needs and mid-long term needs with in the project regions) be implemented?

 6. Schedule

7. Suggested assignment stages

• Preparation, finalization of study design and work plan
• Main part of resilience analysis (desk study, mandatory field visits (2 sample Oblasts) for a minimum of four working days, analysis of data, preparation of draft resilience analysis)
• Preparation, participation and facilitation of 1-day online workshop (with participants of AWO and DVV International)  
• Finalization of resilience analysis incorporating results of workshop.

8. List of documents that will be provided by AWO International

• Concept note and LogFrame
•  Relevant contact details
• Key documents from donor, BMZ TDA strategy
• Other documents upon Consultants’ request

9. Deliverables

• Study design and work plan including methodology, data collection and analysis tools
• Draft resilience analysis report (maximum 20 pages excluding annexes)
• Present and discuss findings at the workshop based on a PowerPoint Presentation
• Final analysis report in English and Ukrainian (maximum 30 pages) excluding list of annexes (these include relevant national, Oblast, Hromada strategies and policy papers, literature references, resilience analysis design/work plan, documentation of 1-day workshop, data collection tools, list of persons and institutions consulted inter alia), and relevant documents. Relevant annexes, especially policy papers, can be attached in Ukrainian.

10. Requirements:

• Reports shall be submitted in the English and Ukrainian as a word and pdf-document. The language of the annexes depend on its sources.
• The resilience analysis (draft and final) report must include the following contents:

1)    Statement on the independence of the experts who conducted the analysis;

2)    List of abbreviation

3)    Executive summary;

4)    Purpose and objectives of the analysis;

5)    Information on the methodology used and the participants;

6)    Description of the data collected responding to the guiding questions of the TORs

7)    Conclusions and recommendations on the project design.

11. Profile of the Consultants

• A team of minimum two independent Ukraine-based consultants or a firm with at least one female team member.
• Technical working expertise in: conducting socio-economic research in Ukrainian municipalities and communities/OTGs, MHPSS, vocational training, non-formal learning, social service delivery, conflict resolution, development of local economic strategies, livelihoods/income generation, monitoring & evaluation and results-based management. The required expertise needs to be clearly reflected in the CVs of the proposed consultants.
• Proven track record of successfully conducted resilience studies or similar studies in the last three years in Ukraine. An asset is to have conducted studies for BMZ.
• Proven track record in applying participatory research methods in order to involve relevant stakeholders already at this stage of the project.
• An additional asset is experience in conducting studies in the context of gender equality, inclusion and climate change and environmental protection.
• Required is profound fluency in Ukrainian (of at least one team member) and English.
• All consultants are responsible for the professional implementation of the resilience analysis and for adhering to the minimum war affected territories safety protocol measures as per government guidelines during field visits.

12. Payment modalities

Payments will be made against invoices to a bank account with the following modalities:

• 30% upon signing the contract
• 70% upon approval of the final resilience analysis report including annexes.

13. Application

Submission until 10th August COB, 2025 to [email protected].

Interested persons/firms shall send their technical and financial proposal (indicating the full gross amount of their compatible consultancy fee in EUR as a lump sum figure covering a) fees (provide break down of daily rate per consultant), b) travel expenditures for the field visits and c) other costs, if reasonably justified). The technical proposal may not exceed four pages (Arial, 10) and must cover the methodological proposal and clear descriptions of (1) technical, methodological, organizational and other capacities of relevance; (2) composition of the expert team including description and division of roles and tasks for all team members; (3) statement of independence for all involved consultants. The curriculum vitae shall be annexed.

Proposals will be assessed taking into account the technical expertise, working experience of the team conducting the analysis and financial offer.

AWO and DVV International encourages female consultants, female headed firms and members of marginalised communities to apply, because AWO and DVV International support and appreciate a diverse working environment based on justice and mutual respect.